Turbulent Election in Madagascar

Written by Jose Miguel Lopez | November 19, 2023

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On November 16th, the presidential election in Madagascar came to a close after voting started last Thursday. This election cycle was surrounded with skepticism and opposition towards the incumbent administration which is expected to continue as the results are still being tabulated. Official results are expected to be announced next week, however, opposition leaders have voiced their concerns over the legitimacy of the election.

Out of 12 running candidates, 10 have called on voters to boycott the election as they believe it is unfair and likely rigged. Opposition leaders claim the incumbent Andry Rajoelina is staging an institutional coup to remain in power. This is due to Rajoelina obtaining French nationality back in 2014, which according to local law disqualifies him from ruling Madagascar as his original nationality is lost. Furthermore, Rajoelina appointed an ally as interim to run the country while he campaigned, which has sparked concern. Rajoelina first came to power in 2009 after a military coup, ruling until 2014 and then winning the 2018 elections. The call to boycott has been met with citizen support and backed by civil society groups who demanded postponement of the election.

Preliminary reports show the election had the lowest voter turnout in the country, around 20%. With a population of 30 million, only 11 million are registered to vote which is already a small voter pool. Additionally, on the ground reports indicated that support areas for Rajoelina had queues in the polls, while the opposition area poles were empty, demonstrating the support for the boycott. Support can be attributed to the citizens’ negative perception of the ruling party. Interviews reveal that citizens believe that little has been accomplished in the last 55 years and less under Rajoelina’s term. The country has been facing economic stagnation for decades, having three fourths of the population living in poverty.

As opposition continues to grow, Madagascar’s democracy will be tested with the results of the election. Rajoelina has expressed confidence in being re-elected to a second term, but opposition has stated they will contest the results if he wins. Official results are not expected until another week making this a situation to observe as it develops.