Busy week for South Africa’s Dark Horse in 2024 Elections

Written by Mariana Hinojosa Castillo | April 15, 2024

Jacob Zuma visiting Isfahan

On Tuesday, South Africa’s Electoral Court ruled that President Ramaphosa’s rival, former President Jacob Zuma, can run for office in the upcoming general election. The ruling overturned the electoral commission’s previous decision that had barred Zuma from the vote due to its past conviction. However, the electoral body stated on Friday that it had filed an “urgent and direct” appeal to the Constitutional Court, the highest court in the country. The commission declared it had specifically asked the court to provide “certainty” on the proper interpretation of the constitutional article relating to the candidacies of people who have been convicted.

South Africa is to hold general and provincial elections on May 29. The 2024 elections represent the country’s seventh democratic exercise since the end of the apartheid system in 1994. South Africans are expected to head to the polls to elect 400 members of the General Assembly and a month later, lawmakers in the new parliament will choose the next president. The governing African National Congress (ANC), once led by Nelson Mandela, has been bleeding support amid a weak economy, high unemployment, rampant crime, and allegations of corruption. Within this context, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) has banked on the popularity of Zuma to drop ANC’s vote share below 50 percent for the first time since 1994. 

Zuma stepped down in 2018. Three years later, in June 2021, he was sentenced to 15 months in jail after refusing to testify to a panel probing financial corruption and cronyism under his presidency. His jailing prompted protests, riots, and looting that resulted in the death of more than 350 people. Although he was freed on medical parole after two months in prison, an appeals court declared his release as illegal. However, he later benefitted from a remission of non-violent offenders approved by Ramaphosa. Despite his history of legal issues and ongoing corruption allegations, Zuma sustains political clout. 

Although Zuma’s campaign represents an attempt to revive his career and weaken his former party, the ANC, the dark horse’s efforts might have greater repercussions for South Africa’s political composition. With a decreasing voting rate, the ANC might be forced to forge chaotic alliances with ideologically opposed parties attempting to stop Zuma’s return to power.