By Julian Fischer-Lhamon
Turkey is in a precarious, though strategic, position between East and West. This also holds true for conflict between Israel and the Arab world. Nominally, Turkey’s leader, Erdoğan, is resolutely in favor of the Palestinian cause. However, his words do not align with his actions. As the East-West rivalry intensifies, Turkey’s balancing act between the two sides becomes increasingly difficult as the margins for action diminish with their radicalization. This holds true for Turkey’s relations with Israel and the Middle East. Ankara is trying very hard to avoid offending Israel and by extension inviting the wrath of the West. Western and Gulf support is crucial for the lagging Turkish economy, as it needs foreign investors to buy its bonds. Although this past year foreign investors have already bought $14bn of bonds, Turkish households still see inflation at a staggering 70%.
The escalation of Israel’s incursion into Lebanon has forced the Turkish navy to scramble to evacuate 2,000 Turkish citizens. No doubt this action is spurred on by humanitarian concerns, but one element of the calculus is that any Turkish casualties would force Erdoğan into a very tricky position where he would have to further denounce Israeli actions without truly acting on it. Perhaps the best example of Turkish appeasement lies in its recent illegal and obfuscatory obstruction of blockade runners to Gaza. This lies in stark contrast to Turkey’s clear participation in a similar attempt to break Israel’s siege fourteen years ago.
Turkey is currently trapped in a paradox: it is in a fantastic position to play both East and West, but in many ways is straitjacketed from leveraging this position for fear of losing it. Ankara will have to simply “muddle through” for now.
The Patterson Journal of International Affairs 
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