The Return of Trump Casts an Unknown Shadow on the Russia-Ukraine War.

By Matthew Grace

With Donald Trump as US President-Elect, the future of the Russia-Ukraine war looks most uncertain, with hints of faltering Ukrainian support and appeals to Russia to come. Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on his electoral victory and described him as a “courageous man” who was “hounded from all sides” during his first presidential term, and that Trump’s assassination attempt and “fight, fight, fight” response “made an impression” on him of courage and masculinity. President Volodymyr Zelensky conversed with Trump after his victory to congratulate him and address his concerns for Ukraine’s defensive efforts. Trump has claimed that “he could end the war in a day” but has not elaborated the specifics. Putin jumped on the statement saying that Trump’s claim “deserves attention at least” as Trump has historically criticized the war, the levels of US aid to Ukraine, and has spoken fondly of Putin. Putin went on, that peace would require Ukraine barred from NATO membership, but Zelensky said there would be no ceasefire without security guarantees. These fears were illuminated by some in Ukraine and throughout Europe as they worry that Trump may slow or cease American military aid to Ukraine once Trump takes office. Although Trump’s personal policy for Ukraine is unknown, one proposed plan by a former Trump advisor called “for the US to indefinitely delay Ukraine’s NATO membership, continue to arm Ukraine, but condition further aid on Ukraine talking peace, offer Russia sanctions relief, and Ukraine would temporarily give up the right to use its military to recapture occupied territory”, along with Vice President-Elect JD Vance commenting that this would look like Russia retaining the land taken from Ukraine with a heavily fortified demilitarized zone; Ukraine remains independent and Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality. Although Trump’s plans for the Russia-Ukraine war are unknown, the prospects for Ukraine’s reclamation of stolen territory appears dim and further out of reach after the November 5^th election.