Hungarian Parliamentary Elections: The Stakes for Viktor Orban and Europe

Pierre Blaché, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

By Ionut Moga

Hungary is scheduled to hold Parliamentary Elections on April 12th. Two main political parties are running for control of the Hungarian National Assembly: Fidesz (Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party) and Tisza (Viktor Orban’s main opposition). Tisza is projected to win the elections, and the lead over Fidesz is projected to be between 5%-20% in most polls. According to Hungarian political commentators, Orban has begun implementing tactics that many autocratic-minded leaders use when they are projected to lose an election. Orban is accusing Ukraine of planning an attack on oil sites, and according to political commentators, is planning to use that as a justification to cancel or invalidate the elections. Orban, like most politicians linked to authoritarian tendencies, is willing to resort to desperate measures to keep an iron grip on his power.

            If Tisza wins, Orban loses power after over 15 years of uninterrupted power as a member of Fidesz. Peter Magyar, the leader of Tisza, accused Orban of corruption and nepotism, and Orban might be investigated if he loses the Election. One notable case Magyar might use to incriminate Orban if he wins against Orban is a scandal that involved political bribes. Peter Magyar released a tape of his former wife condemning the Orban administration for pressuring the justice system in Hungary through the use of bribes. This case shows that corruption is rife in Hungary and that there are likely more corruption cases that the general population lacks knowledge of. Orban most likely knows about each of these involvements.

            The future Election result will have an impact on major decisions in European politics, especially regarding the situation in Ukraine. Hungary, as of February 21, discussed blocking a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine. The reason was because of how Ukraine was blocking the transport of oil to Hungary, related to the discussion about oil from earlier. If Peter Magyar and Tisza win the elections, Magyar would likely be open to talks about funding for Ukraine. Despite Magyar saying that he would not support Ukraine, which is the same position as Orban and Fidesz, he is likely to be softer on his position than Orban. Peter Magyar claimed that he has ambitions of rebuilding relations with the EU. In order to do that, he will likely accept discussions that pertain to Ukraine. He might still give the EU some difficulty, but if he wins and focuses on his main goals regarding Europe from the Tisza perspective, the Hungary-EU relationship is likely to improve. Hungary would drift away from the notable EU sanctions based on Article 7. This matters since it would increase EU cohesion, which in turn will aid the EU in ensuring Ukraine wins the Russia-Ukraine war.