European Energy Security within the Context of the Iran Conflict

By Elizabeth Baughn

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its consequential shocks to the entire European energy infrastructure, countries across the continent have sought to recover their industries and innovate ways of moving forward in the new, volatile environment. In many ways, Europe has made progress along this front, just beginning to benefit from the lowest oil prices in years and a 1.5% increase in industrial production in 2025. The emerging conflict in the Middle East following the United States’ and Israel’s attacks on Iran in February, however, stands to threaten Europe’s trajectory of recovery within its energy sectors. The 2022 energy crisis compelled Europe to reconfigure its energy infrastructure to rely less on Russian oil, but not to become independent. According to National Interest contributor Tatiana Mitrova, “The war in Iran will force Europe to pursue a more resilient, flexible, and protected energy system.”

Perhaps the biggest threat that the war in Iran poses for European energy security is to the supply of natural gas. Qatar has been forced to halt its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), essentially cutting the world off from 20% of the global supply. Europe has developed a reliance on LNG since 2022 through seeking to curb the effects of the Russian invasion, and many countries, such as Italy, have come to heavily depend on energy imports from the Middle East to fuel their operations. Natural gas is used for power generation, heating, and industry across the continent, so the effects of the conflict in Iran risk hindering Europe from being able to adequately provide power to its people and businesses.

Despite all of this insecurity and uncertainty, Europe’s energy industries are unlikely to take a hit as badly as they did in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to the Iran crisis, which mostly affects oil. In addition, Europe has developed a greater dependence on renewable energy. A few countries, such as Spain and Italy, have already begun setting their sights on Africa in order to secure their supplies of gas, while others have emphasized the importance of American LNG exports. Maintaining access to the United States’ gas has produced mixed reactions among European countries in the midst of controversy over President Trump’s motives for attacking Iran, in addition to the controversy surrounding last year’s tariffs. Any decision European countries make in order to maintain energy security in an uncertain trade environment carries economic and political risk, and it remains to be seen whether the continent will truly face a post-Russian invasion-scale energy crisis if the war in Iran turns out to be a more protracted conflict.