Maldivian Leadership Seeks Closer Ties with China

Written by Lexi Dean | May 1, 2024

Mohamed Muizzu’s

President Mohamed Muizzu’s political party, the People’s National Congress (PNC), won parliamentary elections last week obtaining the majority. The PNC turn results were unexpected beating the previous majority, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Mr. Muizzu campaigned on a “India out” platform that would get rid of Indian military presence on the atoll. His campaign consisted of “pro-Maldives” rhetoric instead of pro-India or pro-China. However, while India has historically had an advantageous economic and security relationship with the Maldives, new political shifts have pushed the Maldives to pursue relations with China, especially with Muizzu’s growing domestic political support. It is unlikely that the Maldives will completely break away from India, but domestic political shifts and closer ties with another major power in the region will have political, economic, and security implications. 

Since Muizzu was elected late last year, he met with President Xi Jinping to sign cooperation agreements. He vows to enact a Chinese funded plan to build apartments, bridges, and new airports to alleviate housing insecurity which is a major concern burdening Maldivian citizens. The Maldives multi-billion-dollar tourism industry makes up most of its economy, but amid steps to reorient from India and step closer to China, the Indian population that made up most tourists has significantly decreased. Sources claim this boycotting may also be due to Maldivian junior ministers’ derogatory remarks about India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. Nevertheless, Muizzu continues to pursue closer relations with China, especially with his newly elected parliamentary majority. Former legislator, Ibrahim Ismail, criticizes the Maldives’ new domestic political situation as a potential return to tyranny. Ismail expresses concern over Muizzu’s total power over the judiciary and his ability to rewrite the constitution if desired. Furthermore, his presidency, and now full parliamentary support, will challenge the country’s democracy because of the lack of checks and balances within the party. 

Muizzu’s decision to seek out Chinese funding for infrastructure projects will exacerbate debt distress which could be used as leverage. The Maldives may already need to seek IMF assistance with its growing debt. China may begin seeking a larger permanent presence in the Maldives, which concerns India and other Western countries. India and China have an interest in maintaining a base in the Maldives because of its proximity to important shipping lanes. A more permanent presence will be extremely significant if there were to be a regional conflict. Maldivian ties with India are at a low point under Muizzu’s leadership, and while it is unclear what China’s role will be in the region, these shifts have major regional and global ramifications.