Noboa’s Referendum on Security Succeeds, Paving Way for Militarized Security 

Written by Joseph Cain | May 1, 2024

President Daniel Noboa &  Lavinia Valbonesi

In Ecuador, a primarily security-focused referendum was held on April 21^st  aimed at addressing rising violence fueled by the drug trade amid increasing pressure from the Ecuadorian populace for solutions from the state. The result of the referendum, pushed by President Daniel Noboa, empowers the government to take a more militarized approach to combat the gangs and armed groups present across Ecuador. Of the eleven questions posed to the public, all nine security-minded questions received a resounding yes, highlighting the strong support for Noboa’s governance. As it stands, Noboa has one of the highest approval ratings in Latin America with 67% of Ecuadorians approving his rule. The successful measures, which include the creation of more efficient courts to speed prosecutions and extradition procedures and expanding the Army’s presence in policing patrols, are binding and the National Assembly has 60 days to pass them into law. 

Noboa’s tough-on-crime rhetoric and policies have been compared to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who has taken a zero-tolerance policy towards crime, and accordingly, authorities have incarcerated two percent of El Salvador’s adult population. Bukele has sustained similarly high approval ratings and has delivered on improving the security and stability of El Salvador, but has been criticized for curbing civil liberties, increasing incarceration rates, and committing human rights violations. Still, his “mano dura” (hard hand) policies results have sparked a new wave of support for leaders seeking or employing similar measures, as seen in Ecuador and Honduras. However, it is unlikely that Ecuador will be able to follow the Bukele’s exact blueprint because Ecuador’s securing challenge is multiplied by 1.) Geographical scope— Ecuador is 13 times the size of El Salvador with three times the population, 2.)  The complexity of the criminal actors (home-grown gangs, Mexican cartels, Albanian mafia, and Colombian armed groups), and 3.) Higher costs –-it is projected that it will cost more than $1 billion to sustain the 15,000 soldiers conducting operations across Ecuador this year. Noboa will likely look for support from the United States and Europe in providing the financial and military support needed to combat to complex problems facing his country.