A Referendum on Reform: Chile’s 2025 Presidential Race

By Jack Kolesar

On November 16, Chileans will head to the polls to vote for their next president, the successor to Gabriel Boric. With Boric, head of state since his 2021 election, barred from seeking another term due to term limits, voters must choose between a continued leftist government or a shift to a right-wing candidate. This election is pivotal not only to the politics of Chile, but to the broader region of South America and its contemporary political trends.

For two decades, the presidency of Chile has alternated between left and right-wing governments. No candidate of the same ideological background as the sitting administration has won reelection for their camp in this time frame. Currently, Boric leads Chile from the left. His presidency has focused on rewriting the Chilean constitution and addressing the nation’s complex issues with inequality. As of October 2025, his approval rating stood at around 40%. This displeasure, coupled with a multitude of economic and social issues, have created an opportunity for the right to return to Chile’s executive branch.

The leading contender to replace Boric is the Republican Party’s Jose Antonio Kast, the runner-up in the previous 2021 presidential election. He is often described as far-right, running on a platform promoting an administration that will be tough on crime and immigration. He is a reflection of prosperous times for some, but repressive times for others, due to his deep ties to the 20th century right-wing dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Another candidate challenging the left is Evelyn Matthei. A right-leaning centrist, she is polling well with a campaign focused on tackling crime, instability, and inequality with pragmatic governance. Former labor minister Jeannette Jara is the primary candidate for Chile’s left. A member of the Communist Party, Jara seeks to continue the robust leftist social and economic reforms of Boric. Jara, described as far-left, is polling well but is unlikely to attract centrist voters.

In this election, the candidate with 50% of the vote wins. If no candidate reaches this threshold, which is unlikely this cycle, on November 15, a runoff election will be held in December. In the week leading up to the election, polls are tight but telling. The Communist Party’s Jara leads with around a quarter of projected votes. Despite this lead, a runoff between her and the likely second place on November 16, Kast, will be an uphill battle for Jara. This is due to the probability that voters that did not select Jara nor Kast, instead backing Matthei or one of many other candidates, will likely sway right to Kast. This, in the second round of voting, could push Kast past the essential 50% mark. Altogether, while the election will likely continue to a second round, Jara’s first round lead does not necessarily signal an easy pathway to replacing Boric.

The outcome of this election, whether it is Jara, Kast, or another candidate, will define Chile’s approach to governance. Chile’s economy, constitution, immigration, and crime policies, among other elements of political life, will be deeply impacted by a continued leftist guidance or a drastic shift rightwards. If Jara is elected, expect a continuation of Boric-era policies as part of Latin America’s pink tide. On the other hand, expect a right-wing Kast to aggressively shake things up in one of South America’s most progressive states. Overall, this election will shape the future of Chile due to the polarization between its leading candidates, while also potentially pointing towards a broader continental trend of right-moving ideology in South America in the wake of the leftist “pink tide.”